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Saturday, September 22, 2012

Futuristic Prediction

I have already made it clear that I am not much for Futuristing, however the article America in the year 2020 (Kiyosaki 2006) is the most lopsided article written that has a scientific, governmental  hole or just a plain bucking of economic policies that history has ever shown.

The article states that “Oil will sell for approximately $250 to $300 per barrel and gasoline prices will be around six dollars a gallon. “ The force that is going to go against this fact is several fold. First of all, the U.S. currently has the largest supply of oil in Alaska, Texas and offshore than any other country in the U.S. No one actually knows how much oil we do or do not have, this is like the crazy times of the oil shortage in the 1970’s when cars had to line up for gasoline on opposite days depending upon the last number of their license plate number. In addition, solar, wind, thermal and several other types of renewable energy are making great strides so that gasoline will not be needed. All of the major governments are putting this into place so that the manufacturers of the vehicles run on alternate sources of energy.

The electric supply will become spotty and unreliable. Infrastructure problems combined with fuel shortages will cause brownouts and blackouts during periods of peak demand (Especially during the coldest winter nights and the hottest summer days). In some areas scheduled blackouts may become routine.” Whoa! What about nuclear reactors being built at record rates? What about the fact that the average person that lives around a reactor feels safer now than they ever did in the history of reactors?

The US auto industry will be gone, as will the larger cars we now enjoy. People will be buying smaller fuel-efficient Japanese and Korean cars, the smaller the better. (Detroit simply can't compete with the Japanese when it comes to the manufacture of reliable, fuel-efficient smaller cars.)” Has this guy actually looked at what Ford and GM are putting out these days? Cars that are exceeding 50 miles per gallon, cars with solar energy built into them, cars that are fully charged by electric, not just hybrid?

This guy really should not be taken seriously at all; however there is one prediction that he did make that is already true, “The US will become the single most hated country in the world. US government officials will 
be unable to travel to many places overseas as they will fear arrest for war crimes. American tourists will have to travel very carefully and restrict their wanderings to the few countries where Americans are warmly received.” No one can debate that statement, but then again with NATO, all of those countries actually do WANT to be like the U.S. Even Russia has now joined the WTO.

I guess you give a guy a pen and a piece of paper and anyone is a writer these days.

Kiyosaki, R. (2006). "America in the year 2020." The Hard Times Gazette.

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